Domestic potash fertilizer market analysis

After the New Year's Day, the domestic market of potassium chloride still showed no sign of improvement and the price was still slowly declining. Salt Lake has recently introduced a formal quotation, but the price is still maintained at a high level, it is impossible to play a catalytic role in sales; and individual agents of domestic potassium dealers have been indifferent, have been accompanied by the market price release. Recently, border trade and ports have continued to have low prices, and there have been occasional transactions in the downstream. However, traders generally report that “at present, no matter how low the prices are, there is still no interest”. The contract negotiations with the international potash giants in 2009 are still in a stalemate. In 2008, most of the large contracted goods have already arrived in Hong Kong. The border trade office is also silent and there is no purchase of new goods. Most small border traders indicate that the domestic market continues. In the doldrums, international potash prices have remained high. Currently, there is no way to purchase them. They can only wait and wait. It is reported that a large amount of high-priced sulphur was purchased by a farming company in Yantai, Shandong, and the company was unable to repay bank loans and eventually closed down after the price of sulphur drastically drew. As a result, some potassium chloride was released at a low price, causing other markets to follow suit. Whether this is a fuse or not, but judging from the current market conditions, the short-term potassium chloride price should continue to decline. The main reason is that the end of the year is approaching, and small distributors/traders are eager to withdraw funds and have to lower prices. Therefore, it is also possible that 60% of red potassium chloride fell below 3,000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival. However, after the Spring Festival, with the advent of the spring plowing, the downstream markets will start one after another. It remains to be seen whether the domestic price of potassium chloride can rebound due to the firmness of the international market.

At present: the price of imported potassium low-end arrival is 60% red potassium 3100-3200 yuan / ton, 60% white potassium 3500 yuan / ton; domestic potassium "salt lake" 60% powdered potassium chloride quote 4580 yuan / ton, 60% of the crystals are 4,600 yuan/ton, and the operating prices in the downstream market are below 4,000 yuan/ton, but this is not clear.

Last week, the domestic market for potassium sulfate was depressed, prices have basically dropped below 4,000 yuan/ton across the board, and some manufacturers have already or are preparing to stop production. It is reported that at present some of the relatively large-scale inventory of potassium sulfate manufacturers is still tens of thousands of tons, the sales pressure is very large, the reasons for this situation are mainly the following points. The first is weak downstream demand. At present, neither the compound fertilizer factory nor the tobacco company conducts normal purchases: At this time, the compound fertilizer plant is facing serious slow-moving issues, and high-priced raw materials such as potassium sulfate cannot be purchased at all; and tobacco companies are The sharp drop in the price of potassium sulphate is also prohibitive in the face, do not intend to get a lot of goods, and even some high-end procurement of potassium sulphate tobacco companies in the late settlement will also find a variety of reasons to try to drive down the previously reached price. Followed by the decline of raw materials, the current decline in the price of potassium chloride has become an indisputable fact. This makes it difficult for many manufacturers who purchase high-priced raw materials in the early stage to set sales prices; and sulfuric acid rebounds to a low point after a slight rebound and cannot support potassium sulfate. Price increased. Once again, the 1.2 million tons of potassium sulphate project launched by SDIC Xinjiang Lop is formally put into production to bring pressure to other producers of potassium sulphate. SDIC's potassium sulphate production in Xinjiang is low in cost and competitive in the market, so there are individual manufacturers that expressed potassium sulphate process. It may need reform. As the export tariff is 105%, although the current international price of potassium sulfate is still at a relatively high position, domestic potassium sulfate producers can only hope to be overwhelmed. It is expected that the potassium sulfate market will continue to be shrouded in the shadows in the short term.

At present: 50% of powdered potassium sulfate mainstream factory price 3900 yuan / ton; 50% particle potassium sulfate mainstream factory price 4050 yuan / ton, the recent actual operating prices are mostly lower than the mainstream quote.

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