The domestic power battery industry is changing "high-end overcapacity" is a false proposition

With the blind expansion of the power battery industry, high-end production capacity will also be inevitable. However, looking at the "high-end capacity" of power batteries from another angle, the reality may not be that simple.

国内动力电池产业正在蜕变 “高端产能过剩”是伪命题

First, "high-end production capacity" is actually a relative concept. It may be the comparison between the quality of the first and second echelons and the 3rd and 4th echelon, or the comprehensive strength of the domestic and international power battery companies, or it may be the high score for different application needs. In addition, for the fast-growing new energy automobile industry, the excess of this stage may be insufficient in the future, so overcapacity may have to be viewed with some dialectical vision. In short, simply calculating the total capacity minus the total demand does not lead to credibility conclusions.

Second, from the practical application point of view, the battery as the "treasury" of the energy Internet, the application areas and innovation models that can be applied will be very rich. For example, since 2017, the business model of the energy storage industry has become increasingly clear, which will undoubtedly provide a huge market for new energy consumption. Fang Jianhua, a partner of the National Science and Technology Achievements Transformation Fund, a new energy vehicle venture capital fund, also said that the power battery capacity is not all used for new energy vehicles. With the continuous advancement of technology, the current power battery may be applied to the energy storage field.

Third, from the current situation of the industry, investment tends to be rational and development is more efficient. If the capacity requirement of 8GWh is to encourage enterprises to become bigger and stronger in terms of quantity, then, the new policies of releasing joint-stock shares and restricting and lifting foreign capital shackles will force the independent brands to develop more efficiently and healthily. It can be said that the competition of the new energy automobile industry in the future will inevitably be the competition of the industrial chain. The power battery is the most important thing, and its development cannot be subject to any deviation or loss.

Under the multiple pressures of subsidies, price hikes, and rising raw materials and production costs, the overall cost of domestic lithium battery manufacturing is growing quite seriously. Through the survey of nearly two months, Battery China Network also found that the overall expansion rate of the domestic power battery industry in the first half of 2017 has slowed down significantly.

Battery China Network believes that overcapacity of high-end power batteries is a false proposition, or a proposition without research value. Although some analysts pointed out that China's power battery shipments accounted for about 65% of global power battery shipments in 2016, foreign BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other first-line vehicle companies have gradually cooperated with domestic mainstream battery companies. However, there are not many power battery products that can truly meet the needs of the entire vehicle. If more power battery manufacturers can stand out in the "structural excess" competition, then that is truly something to be proud of.

In addition, the gradual unbinding of policies will also allow foreign companies to participate more in the development of China's power battery market. In the global market competition, how domestic battery companies will break through in competition with Japanese and Korean companies has become the focus of attention in the industry. At present, China's power battery industry has a big gap with Japan and South Korea in terms of manufacturing and management, but the gap in technology is not large. Therefore, we do not have to worry about the release of the policy after the release of the foreign companies, such as dislocated tigers and wrestling, and the advantages of technology are lost. The heart has a tiger and sniffs "Rose". Now China's power battery companies have the strength and need to catch up with Japan and South Korea, helping China's lithium battery power to change to a lithium power.

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